According to the United Nations, November 15th. is the date when the world population surpassed the 8 billion mark.

This is more than 3 times as much, as the 2.5 billion back in 1950.

And in the following 2 weeks, we have already added yet another 3 million.

Here is the chart:

Considering how long humans have been running around on this planet, it is absolutely staggering to look at this chart and contemplate how we as a species have progressed over the last centuries.

The most impressive rise occurred pretty much along with the industrial revolution in the late 18th. and early 19th. century.

Especially the discovery of fossil energy sources and the ability to extract and use them, contributed to the tremendous rise in our standard of living.

First, it was coal and then in the 20th century, increasingly oil and natural gas which made this impressive growth possible:

The capability of using fossil energy made it possible to:

• Develop machinery for efficient production processes.
• Technological advancements in agriculture.
• Spectacular inventions in transportation.
• Impressive construction advancements.
• Crucial progress and breakthroughs in medicine.

Combined, these factors allowed humanity to flourish, extend live expectancy and massively expand the population.

The UN further forecasts that:

• India is about to overtake China as the most populated country in 2023.
• We will reach 9 billion by 2037.
• 10 billion by 2058.
• The world population is going to peak in 2080 at around 10.4 billion.

A different study published by the Lancet predicts a peak population of 9.73 billion in 2064. They also take into account several feasible scenarios and therefore consider a possible range of 6.83 – 11.83 billion people by 2100.

These forecasts are of course just based on models with various factors and assumptions, all of which can be wrong or change over time.

However, all current data suggests that growth rates are declining and that the population will peak and start to decline at some point within the next 100 years.

The annual growth of the world population peaked in 1962/1963 at 2.2% and has basically been on a downward trend ever since. According to forecast predictions, this trend will continue.

In 2021, it fell below 1% for the first time and in 2022 it stands at 0.84%. This is the lowest growth rate since we have somewhat accurate data to measure it.

Is the Earth Overpopulated?

There are many people who are worried about a rising population. Some of the main concerns that are often mentioned are:

• Climate change: More people will produce more CO2 and thereby fostering global warming.
• Food Supply: There are already people who do not have enough to eat.
• Overpopulation: We will run out of livable space.

I think that all of these concerns are flawed. There is a lot to write about each of them, but I will try to condense it here:

• Climate has always been changing. There have been ice ages and there have been warmer periods before. Statistically, far less people die today related to climate events than ever before (and more people die due to cold weather as compared to heat-related deaths). This is due to our advancements in technology and more wealth that enables us to deal with any such issue. For instance, we can build secure dams to deal with rising sea levels (see Netherlands), or, have access to heaters or air conditioning to live comfortably amidst extreme temperatures. Moreover, somehow the pre-industrial temperature has somehow become the “perfect” temperature. But nobody ever asks, why this is the perfect temperature that we should take as a benchmark to measure against. Most (non-critical thinking) people just take that as a given. But there hasn’t been any scientific research to proof that this is the perfect temperature for humankind — and for a good reason. Such an ideal temperature would be impossible to identify, since it is just too complex, always changing and prone to subjective judgement. To conclude: A changing climate requires humanity to adjust to it in various ways, but it is definitely not a crisis to be worried about.
• Similarly, concerns about sufficient food production are erroneous. There are numerous problems when it comes to the food supply, but the amount of people is not the cause of the problem. We went from 99% of people in agriculture to less than 1% over a few centuries. The production of enough food is not a problem of space or technology. The root of the problem is the government. Whenever property rights are upheld, free exchange between people is allowed and the government stays out of the way, 99.99% of foot shortages will be eliminated.
• The last one is the easiest. Traveling across the world and observing the landscape from an airplane or a bus window makes it pretty obvious that the major amount of this planet is still uninhabited. There is still a sufficient amount of space for many billions of people. In addition, making use of energy, progress in construction techniques and advancements in other technologies, allows us to settle in new territories that were previously deemed uninhabitable.

In essence, all of the worries fail to take into account the fundamentals of human nature. Each of us as an individual always has a goal that we try to achieve. We constantly use our minds to think about how we can make progress towards our ends. According to our knowledge, judgement and the circumstances that we are challenged with, we choose the means that we can employ to make advancements. Thus, through this natural process, which is embodied in human nature, we are a species that has evolved over centuries of development and adaptation.

The world has always been a huge and constantly changing organism. Over the centuries, we have used our minds to always develop and find new solutions to the environmental challenges we have found ourselves faced with.

What Implications Do Falling Birth Rates Have?

There are also concerns about demographics. Especially in the western hemisphere, people are worried about the declining birth rates.

Interestingly, often the same people who are concerned about overpopulation are also the people who ring alarm bells about falling birth rates.

Consistency is not a characteristic that most humans are good at.

Taking a step back: From my perspective, there is in general no problem with either a growing or a declining population.

People make their choices based on whatever life they want to live and this results in whatever population will come from it.

There are of course some advantages for both scenarios:

• The higher the population, the more smart minds, the more inventions, the more progress and development → leading to a higher standard of living. 🚀🤑
• On the other hand, there is less scarcity of desired places in a world with less population. And maybe we can also feel a bit more special. 🤔

However, as always, problems arise as soon as the government enters the stage and starts to mess things up.

There are countless examples, but just to name a few of them:

• Chinas 1-child policy → leading to a massively skewed age pyramid.
• Subsidy of children in developed countries → leading to more children in families which are not really able to support them and normally would have made a different choice → which in turn leads to a bunch of other perverse consequences in society…
• Government health care and retirement schemes which are based on growing populations. Basically this mainly happens in democratic systems which are more short-term oriented in order to gain votes → leading to an unfair contribution system and an eventual collapse of the pyramid scheme.

Due to these disruptions of the free market, we need to consider possible consequences of them.

If we look at the current population forecasts, one main aspect to consider is that poor countries tend to have way higher birth rates than wealthy industrial countries.

The main population gain is going to happen in Africa. The population in Africa is more than doubling over the next few decades. To a lesser extent, the population in Asia, especially South-East Asia is also going to increase over the next few years. On the other hand, some populations in North- and South America will see only slight increases, while some will stay stagnant. Lastly, in Europe and some East Asian counties, the population is forecasted to decline.

Given the structure of society today, these changes do pose several concerns. Government programs and institutions have implemented structures that face systemic risks. These risks are directly linked to these demographic developments.

One of the most serious threats is the working age collapse in developed nations:

Over the years, the role of most governments and its related institutions has grown. In other words, while the productive part of the economy is and has been declining, the parasitic part has been continuously growing.

At the same time, most governments have gone further and further into debt, while they have artificially held down the interest rates.

All of this is of course unsustainable.

Future Prospects

One obvious solution to at least counteract against some of the demographic risks — although they cannot be eliminated — would be the free movement of labor and capital across borders:

• For instance, young people from Africa could immigrate to Europe to find jobs.
• Companies could relocate more easily to places that offer a broader labor market.

However, given the current trend of de-globalization and an increasingly hostile mindset towards foreign labor, combined with a growing pile of ever increasing regulations and bureaucracy, it seems not very likely to see any positive changes in the near-term.

The main narrative of this newsletter is that our fiat-currency based financial system is on the brink of collapsing and that we will — in some form or another — see the world shift to another monetary system over the next decade(s).

While this sounds very pessimistic, I am actually quite confident that the shift will result in a way better monetary system. More precisely, I think that we will have a monetary system that is sound and cannot be artificially manipulated by anyone. Probably, it will be based on Bitcoin as the fundamental settlement layer.

The demographic development is one of the puzzle parts playing out in this development.

The ramifications that such a system would have for the world are numerous — and all positive! 🙂